Category Archives: Economics

Energy Content of Fuels

Posted on October 9, 2014 by Brad Horn

Energy Content Explained

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Click to enlarge

The energy content of any organic fuel is defined as the fuel’s primary energy.  Primary energy is measured given the fuels calorific value or the heat generation from the complete combustion of one unit of fuel under well-defined conditions.  The calorific value can be a gross or net number, depending on whether the combustible heat released takes into account the vapor condensation of water.  Power production efficiency is typically calculated using Net Calorific Value (NCV) after water vaporization.

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Term Structure of Crude Oil 2018

Posted on January 30, 2019 by Brad Horn

An animation showing the term structure of NYMEX crude oil.  For source code, go here.

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Predicting Technology Progress and Solar Growth

Posted on July 7, 2016 by Brad Horn

Technology progress is a key to solar growth and pricing.  By extension, the ability to model technology progress is essential to understanding future energy supply and demand.

Solar innovation is widespread. Examples include  solar cell efficiency, module manufacturing, and learning innovations with solar system installation and operation. Solar pricing and growth are also supported by innovations in enabling technology, such as battery storage, smart grids and electric vehicles.

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Cost Breakdown Structures for Solar PV Projects

Posted on June 2, 2015 by Brad Horn

Modules, inverters and balance of system costs define the total installed cost of a solar PV system.

The three cost components are very simple in nature.  In practice, total cost is defined using a detailed cost breakdown structure.  The structure must also be applied consistently across projects and over time.  The result can be improved cost modeling and management.

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New Solar Technology – LCOE Roadmap Qatar

Posted on June 1, 2014 by Brad Horn

NREL_Best_Research-Cell_EfficienciesBloomberg has released May 2014 PV Spot Prices with current module costs (COGS), margins and sales prices.  This data is extended to profile the levelized cost of  energy (LCOE) for solar PV technology, and is combined with new solar efficiency data to define the LCOE roadmap for solar energy in Qatar going forward.

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